Mike's Musings, Feb 16th-20th




GBP CPI: 0.3%(0.3%)

EUR German ZEW Economic Statement: 55.4(53.0)

NZD GDT Price Index: 10.1%

JPY Monetary Policy Statement

JPY BOJ Press Conference


GBP Average Earnings Index: 1.7%

GBP Claimant Count Change: -25.2k

GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: 0-0-9

CAD Wholesale Sales: 0.4%

USD Building Permits: 1.08M

USD PPI: -0.4%

USD FOMC Meeting Minutes


USD Unemployment Claims: 293k

USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: 8.8


EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.7

EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: 51.8

GBP Retail Sales: -0.1%

CAD Core Retail Sales: -0.7%


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The Loonie closed out last week on the front foot, holding onto some gains, and stabilizing against the USD. The CAD was helped by some softer than expected US numbers as Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence data out of the US missed the mark, while Canadian Manufacturing Sales numbers doubled expectations, posting strong gains. With another rate cut on the cards for the BOC, these levels are not expected to last, and we could see them fall again with any hint of a rate hike in the US in the FOMC minutes tomorrow. USD buyers should take advantage of these levels to hedge any exposure longer than a month, while USD sellers should be happy to wait for the next rise in the Dollar. 

Support: 1.2375, 1.2300

Resistance: 1.2500, 1.2540





The EUR starts the week off fairly steady, as there remains optimism that Greek debt negotiations will be resolved this week. Add that to the fact that some EUR numbers are starting to turn around, and the EUR has gone from a currency under pressure, to a currency looking to recover. Positive PMI numbers later in the week could give the EUR another boost, and while this may only last short term, things are certainly looking better for a currency that has been struggling in recent months.

The GBP posted another week of gains last week as the BOE Governor Carney sounded fairly bullish on the UK economy. With Oil prices lower and wages in the UK rising, these are both good things for the average UK household. However, inflation forecasts continue to dampen the long term outlook on the pound, and any sign of inflation going lower will surely see the GBP fall again. Retail Sales, Claimant Count Change, and Average Earnings Index are the highlights of this week, and if those fail to meet expectations, expect the GBP to lose most of last week's gains.

Written by mbrown@paylinebyice.com




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