Mike's Musings, Jan 07




EUR German Unemployment Change: -6k(-27k)

EUR CPI Flash Estimate: 0.0%(-0.2%)

EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate: 0.6%(0.8%)

EUR Unemployment Rate: 11.5%(11.5%)

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 227k(241k)

CAD Trade Balance: -0.2B(-0.6B)

USD Trade Balance: -42.3B(-39.0B)

CAD Ivey PMI: 52.3(55.4)

USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks

AUD Building Approvals: -2.7%


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The Loonie opened under pressure this morning, as Canadian Trade Balance numbers were worse than expected, and Oil prices were weaker again. It was a far different story down south, as not only did the US Trade Balance figures come in far better than expected, but employment data was also looking rosy. This has helped the USDCAD pair establish itself over the 1.1825 resistance level(now switched to support), and we can now look for the pair to take a serious run at the 1.1875 level. If it breaks through at 1.1875, it could be a quick run to the high 1.19's, or even the low 1.20's.

Support: 1.1875, 1.1975

Resistance: 1.1825, 1.1750




The EUR fell overnight as worries over deflation were justified, with CPI numbers falling into the negative territory. This, combined with the terrorist attack in Paris which left several people dead, caused the EURUSD pair to trend towards the 1.18 level. 

The GBP was lower as the GBPUSD pair fell below the 1.51 level, and is slowly inching its way towards the 1.50 level. With no data out of the UK last night, it continues to remain hampered by the poor Services PMI numbers from the previous day. Look for the Pound to remain under pressure until we see a run of stronger economic data.

Written by mbrown@paylinebyice.com 



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