Mike's Musings, Mar 2nd-6th

 
 
 

THIS WEEK's HIGHLIGHTs

Monday: 

GBP Manufacturing PMI: 53.5(54.1)

EUR CPI Flash Estimate: -.5%(-.3%)

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: 53.4(52.9)

AUD Building Approvals: -1.8%

AUD Cash Rate: 2.00%

AUD RBA Bank Statement

Tuesday:

EUR Spanish Unemployment Change: 10.5k

GBP Construction PMI: 59.0

BOE Gov Carney Speaks

CAD GDP: 0.1%

AUD GDP: 0.7%

USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Wednesday:

GBP Services PMI: 57.6

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 219k

CAD BOC Rate Statement

CAD Overnight Rate: 0.75%

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 56.5

AUD Retail Sales: 0.4%

AUD Trade Balance: -0.93B

Thursday:

GBP Official Bank Rate: 0.50%

GBP MPC Rate Statement

EUR Minimum Rate Bid: 0.05%

EUR ECB Press Conference

USD Unemployment Claims: 319k

CAD Ivey PMI: 46.2

Friday:

CAD Building Permits: 5.5%

CAD Trade Balance: 0.3B

USD Non-Farm Employment Change: 241k

USD Trade Balance: -41.6B

USD Unemployment Rate: 5.6%

 

 

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NORTH AMERICA

 

The Loonie had a steady week last week, with some gains and some losses, but closing the week basically unchanged near the 1.25 level. US Fed's Janet Yellen's testimony hinted that a rate hike might not happen as soon as expected, which took some air out of the USD, stating that wage growth and inflation need to both improve before any rate hike would happen. In Canada, with inflation levels remaining weak(although within expectations), the Loonie wasn't able to fully capitalize on the softer statement out of the US. With a number of important data releases happening this week, we could see some significant movement in the USDCAD currency pairing. With the Loonie still exposed to weaker economic data, poor GDP and inflation this week could leave the CAD exposed to lower levels. And despite Yellen's testimony last week, stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll numbers could boost the expectancy of a rate hike for June. 

Support: 1.2500, 1.2380

Resistance: 1.2710, 1.2925

 

 

   
   

EMEA/ASIA-PACIFIC

The EUR starts the week off holding ground as CPI numbers last night beat the estimates. The common currency remains under pressure though as the QE program is about to start, and the ECB rate decision and statement will be front and center this week. Look for the EUR to struggle to push higher, as deflationary risks continue to plague the currency.

The GBP was solid last week, holding steady and not losing ground as GDP numbers came in on expectations. This week will be highlighted by PMI numbers as well as the BOE Rate decision. UK economic data has been fairly steady the last few weeks, and if PMI numbers remain within expectations, we shouldn't see too much movement from the Pound this week. Lot for solid numbers to help the Pound solidfy it's support at these current levels.

Written by mbrown@paylinebyice.com

 

 

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